US report places Pakistan among high-risk countries

A new US government report places Pakistan among pivotal yet problem-beset countries that may become failed states.The report by a US government agency called the National Intelligence Council also includes Pakistan among the countries that are most hostile to the United States.“Societies most hostile to the United States are found in the Islamic Middle East, as well as Pakistan and North Africa. India is an important exception,” notes the NIC report.Formed in 1979, NIC is the centre for mid-term and long-term strategic thinking within the US intelligence community, which includes the CIA.The report titled, “Global Trends 2025 – A Transformed World,” identifies two main threats to Pakistan’s survival: militancy and economic stability. “The future of Pakistan is a wildcard in considering the trajectory of neighbouring Afghanistan,” it warns.The council predicts that the NWFP and tribal areas will continue to be poorly governed and will remain the source or supporter of cross-border instability in Afghanistan.“If Pakistan is unable to hold together until 2025, a broader coalescence of Pashtun tribes is likely to emerge and act together to erase the Durand Line,” NIC warns.This will maximise Pashtun space at the expense of Punjabis in Pakistan and Tajiks and others in Afghanistan, the report adds. “Alternatively, the Taliban and other Islamist activists might prove able to overawe at least some tribal politics.”An expected increase in unemployment will ensure that Pakistan remains ripe for continued instability and state failure, the report adds. “Pakistan with its large current account deficit is at considerable risk for an economic collapse,” the report warns.According to the report, the direction of Islam’s internal ideological struggle will be determined primarily by local conditions.In countries where economic and demographic trends are favourable and publics and governments opt for the benefits of globalisation, there will be strong incentives to revive and broaden Islamic teachings that promote a culture of innovation, scientific learning, political experimentation and respect for religious pluralism.But the report places Pakistan among those countries that will see an increase in radical trends because of youth-bulges and weak economic underpinnings.Nuclear threat: The spread of nuclear technologies and expertise is generating concerns about the potential emergence of new nuclear weapon states and the acquisition of nuclear materials by terrorist groups. Ongoing low-intensity clashes between India and Pakistan continue to raise the spectre that such events could escalate to a broader conflict between those nuclear powers.Ongoing low-intensity clashes between India and Pakistan continue to raise the spectre that such events could escalate to a broader conflict between those nuclear powers.A terrorist use of a nuclear weapon or an escalating conflict between two nuclear powers, such as India and Pakistan, would graphically demonstrate the danger of nuclear weapons, prompting calls for global nuclear disarmament and energising counter-proliferation and counter-terrorism measures.Population: The current youth-bulge in Pakistan will persist through 2025. The population is projected to remain on rapid-growth trajectories. Pakistan’s population is projected to grow by about 55 million people. Pakistan is also among the countries that will face fresh water scarcity. All these factors place Pakistan among the high-risk countries, the report concludes.