Politics as usual

By Cyril Almeida
FOR a while, the possibility of a clash between the PPP and the PML-N was The Thing That Must Not Be Spoken Of. To do so would jinx Pakistan’s new set-up and invite bad karma. But that was yesterday. Now the clash of the titans is all anyone can talk about.That seemingly long, long time ago beginning in February, when the transition was underway and democracy had another chance to grow, the dream team of the PPP and the PML-N cast a spell over the people and skilfully dispatched the weakened dictator Musharraf. Sceptics, however, wondered whether it was simply a prelude to the real thing, a way of clearing the decks before resuming the bitterness of the ’90s. After all, wipe away the Musharraf years and the civilian pattern is miserably clear: PPP, PML, PPP, PML — and now PPP.Logically then, this fight was written in the stars.How will it play out? Either the PPP will shove the PML-N out of Punjab to save itself in Islamabad or the PML-N will shove the PPP out of Islamabad to save its government in Punjab. We don’t know the winner yet, but the signs are neither is playing for a draw.Who’s to blame? Some of them protagonists, all of them, none of them — the system, the stars? Probably all of the above.Start with the obvious: Nawaz Sharif and Asif Zardari. The problem may be bigger, and older, than them, but they have contributed to the coming storm with their cynicism.Look at Sharif, defying the superior judiciary at every turn, dismissing them contemptuously, ready to suffer his own disqualification to stand up for his principles. Except it’s all a charade.If Nawaz Sharif really wanted to go all out to bring CJ Iftikhar back, he has a formidable weapon in his arsenal: order the Punjab government — his government — to stop dealing with the courts. Imagine the turmoil, the constitutional crisis, the make-or-break scenario if the country’s largest and most powerful province rejects the courts and demands the reinstatement of CJ Iftikhar.But Sharif makes a strange distinction: the courts are personally unacceptable, however, they are acceptable when it comes to the business of the Punjab government. Sharif will argue the usual defences: public interest, can’t make the people suffer for the presidency’s wrongdoing, the greater good.You can’t blame Zardari for being sceptical. CJ Iftikhar was adopted by the PML-N to make it look good in comparison to the status quo. The status quo used to be headlined by Musharraf, and now by Zardari.Yet, Zardari has done more than his fair share to contribute to the current tension. He may be the accidental president but, accidental or not, the PML-N must eye him with a great deal of suspicion, for Zardari, by virtue of his constitutional position, has become the arbiter of many important things for the Sharifs.Dismiss a Sharif government in Islamabad? Zardari can do it. Dismiss the younger Sharif’s government in Punjab? Zardari can do it by proxy, the nit-picking, garrulous Governor Taseer. Stuff the judiciary with favourites? Zardari can do it.But more than what Zardari can do, it’s what Nawaz Sharif can’t do that will trouble him: Sharif can’t dislodge Zardari from office through any normal constitutional process. The impeachment numbers simply don’t add up, and probably never will, in the current assemblies. It’s a bit like India having a nuclear weapon and Pakistan fighting with rusty tanks — such asymmetry in constitutional power, one player decidedly, dangerously, superior to the other, will inevitably lead to a desperate attack by the other.Yet, what if Zardari and Sharif had steered clear of provocations that aggravated suspicion on either side? Fact is, the most honest thing uttered by a politician perhaps ever was Zardari’s admission that political agreements are not sacred texts. As tokens of goodwill, Zardari and Sharif could have come up with peace offerings that may have eased things along temporarily. However, what they ultimately must do as party leaders is also shaped, and constrained, by the system they operate in.The February elections threw up a result that virtually guaranteed the PPP and PML-N would not just circle each other warily, but be tempted to attack — or else risk being attacked by the other first. And nobody’s signature on any dotted line would change that reality.The returns of the two parties were similar enough to make each consider it equal to the other, a recipe for instability. But the real problem, and Musharraf’s last laugh at his bete noires’ expense, was the returns of the PML-Q. The Q-league has enough seats in the Punjab and national assemblies to allow either the PPP or the PML-N to pull comfortably ahead of the other. Rivals who are numerically evenly matched, with the possibility of a decisive addition to their seat count: it’s enough to tempt even a saint. And there aren’t many likely claims to sainthood around here.Of course, there is a possibility that everyone will back off for now and March won’t be a month of change. But, for a structural reason, that will be a short-lived position.Other than the personalities and the February electoral results, a key instability built into the system is Punjab. Simply put, in electoral terms, it’s too big a province. When one party, such as the PML-N, dominates Punjab, it will always be tempted to take over in Islamabad since the numbers add up. With 148 seats out of the 272 directly elected National Assembly seats, Punjab has a simple majority. Even if a couple of dozen seats are lost, the dominant Punjab party can quickly line up smaller parties and independents from the other provinces to form a government in Islamabad.This is something everyone knows: the PPP, the PML-N, the smaller parties and the independents. So, given the lie of the land in Punjab at the moment, the PML-N will be tempted to strike while its popularity is through the roof, an anxious PPP will be looking to other parties for support, and the rest will be looking to cut deals that convert a small parliamentary presence into rich pickings. Look no further than the swelling cabinet in Islamabad for evidence of some of this.Change is in the air, except no one can honestly tell what, where and when. The real surprise — and a good one, at that — would be if the status quo prevails until the next scheduled election. But Pakistan isn’t a land of pleasant surprises and there’s no obvious reason to expect one this time round either.