Problems that persist

By Anwar Syed
HOSTS on television shows were recently asking ordinary folks in the four provinces of Pakistan what things had been like for them during 2008 and what their hopes and expectations were for 2009.Almost all of them said they had been miserable; high prices had made it difficult for them to have even the basic necessities of life. Even those who did have some money could not buy things they needed because they were in extremely short supply. There was simply not enough of wheat flour, electricity, gas, petrol, safe drinking water to go around. They were on the verge of utter destitution and felt they were being driven to revolt against state and society.Those belonging to the upper and middle classes, who do have access to the necessities, feel terribly insecure. A massive breakdown of law and order has made life and property more unsafe than at any time in recent memory.The interviewees squarely blamed the government for their deprivations. The present government claims that the current adversities are a result of the mismanagement and neglect of Gen Pervez Musharraf’s regime and that of his cronies in the PML-Q. This assertion is open to two reservations. One, things were not as bad during Musharraf’s rule, and second, even if we assume that the consequences of his regime’s misdoings had to take time to unfold, the fact remains that the Zardari-Gilani combine, now occupying the helm, is doing nothing to rectify the prevailing situation.It cannot be said that the shortages in Pakistan are wholly the fallout of a global phenomenon. For while shortages do exist in other places, they are not known to be as severe in, let us say, Turkey, Egypt, India and much of Southeast Asia.The government could say to the people that the shortages are beyond its power to overcome, that the times are bad for all of us, and that we all have to tighten our belts. In that case the rulers and their functionaries will have to take the lead in adopting austerity. They have not made that kind of a plea to the people, and nor have they shown any signs of accepting austerity. It has become their custom to declare that they are making plans, appointing commissions and committees, and bringing in lavishly paid experts to meet the problems facing the people. But it is as firmly their custom not to take any concrete action to implement their assurances. It is also possible that they simply do not understand why the shortages in Pakistan are as severe as they are.Going on to another aspect of the matter, I may suggest that ours has become a society of consumers much more than it is one of savers, investors and producers. Unpredictable bomb blasts notwithstanding, shoppers crowd stores and diners restaurants. Kitchens in middle-class homes are equipped with electric appliances such as microwave ovens, toasters, grinders, mixers, juicers and running hot water. Living spaces in homes have gas and electric heaters and air conditioners.I have learned from researchers who have surveyed homes in Pangali, a small town close to the Lahore School of Economics where I am based, that 80 per cent of the households have television sets, 60 per cent have refrigerators, and 20 per cent even have air conditioners. Many of the meat and vegetable stores (and some vendors) in the town have freezers. All of these appliances consume energy.Consumers multiply as the population grows, and it has grown nearly five-fold during the last 60 years. The production of goods has not increased correspondingly. Hence the shortages. But it is a fact also that living beyond our resources has become our style of living both as individuals and collectivities such as governments.The existing power-generation facilities in the country are not working to their capacity because of insufficiency of water in our rivers and dams. With more rains and greater release of water from the reservoirs India is building in Kashmir, water in our rivers would increase and so should the production of electricity. But if the population continues to increase at its present rate, industrialisation proceeds, and lifestyles remain extravagant, no amount of energy we can generate will be enough. Gas is not a renewable source, and even if new fields are found, shortages will develop if consumption keeps increasing.The Pakistani economy is in a slump. Industrial production has been falling, manufacturing units have been shutting down, and workers have been losing jobs. Global influences that contributed to these developments will recede with time. But domestic investors and entrepreneurs will continue to shy away so long as insecurity of life and property remains. The disruption of public order does not result mainly from some dramatic rise in the number of thieves and robbers. It is also the work of extremists, militants and terrorists.No one really knows how extremism and militancy are to be eradicated. Some observers have maintained that dialogue with them is the way to go. But they do not know, or at least they have never specified, what the terms of reference for this dialogue might be.A few days ago Mr Bashir Bilour, a senior minister in the NWFP, said in a television news show that his government had held negotiations and reached an accord with the Taliban in Swat, but they repudiated it within a few days. Then there are people who believe that the government has to use adequate force to put the Taliban out of action. The army, paramilitary force, Rangers and the police have been fighting militants in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan, the adjoining settled districts and Swat for almost two years. A few fighters on each side get killed almost every day, but there are no indications that the government forces are close to winning a decisive victory.The militants are well armed with modern weapons and well trained in using them. It is hard to say when the insurgents will be finally subdued and normal security of life and property, peace and stability restored. It seems to me that we in Pakistan will have to contend with “bad times” for the foreseeable future. Even more distressing is the fact that neither the government nor any organs of civil society are preparing the people to deal with adversity with courage, fortitude, and a will to overcome and move on.The writer, professor emeritus at the University of Massachusetts, is a visiting professor at the Lahore School of Economics.