Obama’s world

By the time you read this, Barack Obama will have been sworn in as the 44th president of the United States. Although his swearing came as the result of an amazing exercise in democracy, his inauguration was as full of pomp and ceremony as any royal coronation. However, the American president wields more power than any king.

Although Obama has come to office after a gruelling campaign, he will discover that the hard part starts now. His in-tray is as full as that of any modern president; thousands of leading writers, columnists and assorted pundits around the world have shot off their memos to the president-elect; and domestic and world events have already dictated a massive agenda. But as Obama is about to discover, the powers of the president are severely circumscribed.

The reality of the presidency is a far cry from the absolute power many outside the United States assume it to embody. The checks and balances written into the constitution prevent the executive from assuming authority over the legislature or the judiciary. The media, too, plays a strong role in keeping the president under constant scrutiny, and citizens’ groups, lobbies and elected state officials all combine to provide a deterrent to a president who tries to accumulate absolute power.

However, there is a bigger consideration than these legal and institutional checks and balances: ambition. As soon as a president is sworn for his first term, his gaze shifts to the next one. Although the formal electoral campaign is a couple of years away, the new incumbent is already calculating his chances, and begins doing whatever he can to ensure another four years in the White House. This electoral calculus further limits the president’s freedom of action. So if he or she wishes to follow a controversial new policy, it is likely to happen at the start of the second, and last, term. Free from the pressure of vested interests, as well as from political ambition, the president can truly make a difference if he or she chooses to.

It is important to understand these constraints as we draw up our own wish lists for President Obama. In a local newspaper, I recently came across an article titled ‘What the Obama presidency means for Sri Lanka’. I am sure this article has appeared in various forms in different countries across the world. The US casts such a long shadow that it’s quite legitimate to ask at the start of a new administration: what’s in it for us?

Over the last year, much has been made of Obama’s Muslim heritage. Many American voters have been put off, while huge numbers of foreigners have been intrigued by what this might mean, especially in his interaction with the Muslim world. Whatever the future might bring, one thing is for sure: Obama’s knowledge and insight will prevent rulers in the Islamic world from any notion of exploiting political correctness while dealing with him. During the Israeli assault on Gaza, the Secretary-General of the Arab League said on TV that it was Israel’s continuing occupation of the West Bank and Gaza that was preventing democratic reforms in the Arab world. Considering there is not a single full-fledged democracy in this moribund organization with the exception of Lebanon, this remark was clearly self-serving nonsense. We can rest assured that Obama will see through it, and ignore such rhetoric.

The reality is that the ongoing economic and banking crises in the United States will demand most of Obama’s time and political capital. Beyond setting broad outlines, he is unlikely to devote much time to problems in the Middle East, or the Pakistan-Afghan border. And given what we know about the new Secretary of State, she will not bring any new thinking to global issues. Hillary Clinton may be intelligent and hard working, but she is not known for lateral thinking.

Another item on Obama’s agenda is sure to be the environment. Here he will have to balance his campaign pledges with the requirements of an ailing economy. But what was urgent when oil was touching $150 per barrel might not be as pressing now, when its price is hovering around $40. Nevertheless, Obama’s ambitious energy plans dovetail neatly with the need to create new jobs. So we may well see the start of the movement away from our dependence on oil, with all its implications for the environment, as well as for OPEC. Considering that there is a broad consensus on the need to reduce carbon emissions, the political climate is right to face down the oil lobby.

Closer to home, it is likely that there will be a major re-think of Washington’s relationship with Islamabad. Richard Holbrooke, the recently-named special envoy to the region, is an energetic, well-informed diplomat who will have the ear of both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. It is likely that the United States will press for greater regional cooperation to tackle the menace of the Taliban and assorted extremists. In any case, Obama is sure to place far greater emphasis on education and other social sector programmes in Pakistan and Afghanistan than Bush did.

The reality of Obama’s presidency is that so far, his appointments have been very cautious and conservative, and totally out of step with his promise of change. Reaching into the pool of Clinton-era diplomats, bankers and politicians, he has filled his cabinet with safe names. This might ensure continuity, but it does not translate into the kind of transformation so many of his supporters voted for.

The best news is that Obama is not Bush. While his predecessor was able to bulldoze through policies and legislation on the back of the fear he and his neo-cons whipped up in the wake of 9/11, Obama is likely to behave in a far more restrained and collegial manner. He will work to rebuild alliances and partnerships damaged during the Bush presidency, and proceed abroad with less arrogance and contempt for international organizations like the UN.

So all in all, while we may not get the magically transformed world so many had dreamed of during Obama’s campaign, we will hopefully get a more civilised world where one country does not ride rough-shod over others. Above all, we will get a United States where miracles are possible.